Australia's Dengue Risk Driven by Human Adaptation to Climate Change

Current and projected rainfall reduction in southeast Australia has seen the installation of large numbers of government-subsidised and ad hoc domestic water storage containers that could create the possibility of the mosquito Ae. aegypti expanding out of Queensland into southern Australian's urban regions. By assessing the past and current distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we construct distributional models for this dengue vector for our current climate and projected climates for 2030 and 2050. The resulting mosquito distribution maps are compared to published theoretical temperature limits for Ae. aegypti and some differences are identified. Nonetheless, synthesising our mosquito distribution maps with dengue transmission climate limits derived from historical dengue epidemics in Australia suggests that the current proliferation of domestic water storage tanks could easily result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti along with the associated dengue risk were the virus to be introduced

Predicting invasions of North American basses in Japan using native range data and a genetic algorithm

Largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides and smallmouth bass M. dolomieu have been introduced into freshwater habitats in Japan, with potentially serious consequences for native fish populations. In this paper we apply the technique of ecological niche modeling using the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) to predict the potential distributions of these two species in Japan. This algorithm constructs a niche model based on point occurrence records and ecological coverages. The model can be visualized in geographic space, yielding a prediction of potential geographic range. The model can then be tested by determining how well independent point occurrence data are predicted according to the criteria of sensitivity and specificity provided by receiver–operator curve analysis. We ground-truthed GARP’s ability to forecast the geographic occurrence of each species in its native range. The predictions were statistically significant for both species (P , 0.001). We projected the niche models onto the Japanese landscape to visualize the potential geographic ranges of both species in Japan. We tested these predictions using known occurrences from introduced populations of largemouth bass, both in the aggregate and by habitat type. All analyses robustly predicted known Japanese occurrences (P , 0.001). The number of smallmouth bass in Japan was too small for statistical tests, but the 10 known occurrences were predicted by the majority of models

Tracking a Medically Important Spider: Climate Change, Ecological Niche Modeling, and the Brown Recluse (Loxosceles reclusa)

Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses

A Tale of Four “Carp”: Invasion Potential and Ecological Niche Modeling

. We assessed the geographic potential of four Eurasian cyprinid fishes (common carp, tench, grass carp, black carp) as invaders in North America via ecological niche modeling (ENM). These “carp” represent four stages of invasion of the continent (a long-established invader with a wide distribution, a long-established invader with a limited distribution, a spreading invader whose distribution is expanding, and a newly introduced potential invader that is not yet established), and as such illustrate the progressive reduction of distributional disequilibrium over the history of species' invasions.We used ENM to estimate the potential distributional area for each species in North America using models based on native range distribution data. Environmental data layers for native and introduced ranges were imported from state, national, and international climate and environmental databases. Models were evaluated using independent validation data on native and invaded areas. We calculated omission error for the independent validation data for each species: all native range tests were highly successful (all omission values <7%); invaded-range predictions were predictive for common and grass carp (omission values 8.8 and 19.8%, respectively). Model omission was high for introduced tench populations (54.7%), but the model correctly identified some areas where the species has been successful; distributional predictions for black carp show that large portions of eastern North America are at risk.ENMs predicted potential ranges of carp species accurately even in regions where the species have not been present until recently. ENM can forecast species' potential geographic ranges with reasonable precision and within the short screening time required by proposed U.S. invasive species legislation

Predicting invasive potential of smooth crotalaria (Crotalaria pallida) in Brazilian national parks based on African records

Alien weed species rank among the most important threats to conservation of biodiversity, making understanding the extent to which protected natural areas are vulnerable to invasion by weeds pivotal in long-term maintenance and conservation of biodiversity. We investigated the potential geographic range of the invasive paleotropical weed, smooth crotalaria, in protected natural areas across Brazil. The ecological niche dimensions of smooth crotalaria in Africa (its putative original distribution) were modeled using a genetic algorithm. Models for the native range and their projections to South America showed good predictive ability when challenged with independent occurrence data. All Brazilian protected natural areas were predicted as highly vulnerable to invasion by this species. However, smooth crotalaria appears more likely to occur in open (savanna-like vegetation, such as cerrado and pantanal) and highly fragmented (Atlantic forest) areas than in extensive closed forests (Amazon). Management suggestions and research priorities are outlined based on these results.54345846